The 1997 Washington Input-Output Model
Released July 2004
In 2002, six state agencies, under the direction of leading economist Dick Conway (of Conway and Associates), initiated an effort to update the 1987 Washington Input-Output (I-O) Model. The process was sponsored and coordinated by the state Office of Financial Management.
The Basic I-O Model
This most recent Washington State Input-Output Study updates the State Input-Output Table to 1997. The study was conducted through a multi-agency joint effort sponsored by the Office of Financial Management and directed by consultant Dr. Dick Conway, who is one of the pioneers in constructing I-O tables for the state. Economists from the participating state agencies - Department of Revenue, Employment Security Department, Department of Transportation, Office of the Forecast Council, and Department of Community, Trade, and Economic Development, and OFM - helped collect, compile, estimate, and review data and industry information used as inputs for the update.
Chapter 1: The Washington Input-Output Tables for 1997 (pdf)
The state I-O Table provides a detailed and complete picture of the state's economic structure, including the inter-industry linkages, and the economy's dependence on the U.S. domestic and international markets. Chapter 1 discusses the two 1997 I-O tables, one with industrial sectors defined by the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) and the other by the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS).
Chapter 2: Update of the Washington Input-Output Table - Methodology and Procedures (pdf)
The 1997 Study represents the sixth update of the state I-O Table. The first Table (based on the year 1963) was published in 1967; subsequent state input-output tables were constructed for the years 1967, 1972, 1982, and 1987. The 1997 update adopted a non-survey-based approach, using data mainly from secondary sources and estimates from past studies of state industries. Chapter 2 describes the data sources, the industrial sectors in the tables, and the updating methodology and procedures.
Chapter 3: Input-Output Model as a Tool for Regional Impact Analysis (pdf)
The I-O Table actually provides estimates of the "degrees" of interdependence among industrial sectors in the state. Each sector not only produces and sells goods or services, but also purchases goods or services for use within its production process. Estimates in the I-O Table show these relationships. Thus, an I-O model can be constructed that, by depicting the circular flows among industries, serves as an analytical tool in evaluating the ripple effects on the state's economy from changes in internal or external forces. Two spreadsheets will be provided to assist users in conducting economic impact analysis - a Simple Analysis spreadsheet and a Complex Analysis spreadsheet. Chapter 3 discusses the I-O impact model and explains what the two spreadsheet files contain and how to use them.
Chapter 4: Employment, Income, and Output Multipliers by Industry (pdf)
The estimated ripple effects on the state economy, resulting from an external change, can be summarized into the "multiplier" concept. The multipliers simply show, given the initial economic change, what the total impact on the state economy will be. Mathematically, a multiplier is derived by dividing the total impact estimated from the I-O model by the original direct change. There are numerous types of multipliers, the most widely used are employment and earnings/income multipliers. Chapter 4 presents employment, income, and output multipliers estimated from the 1997 I-O model for quick reference.
Last modified: August 9, 2004
E-mail: OFM.Forecasting@ofm.wa.gov